Montenegro at crossroads: toward the West, or back to Russia

Aspiring NATO member Montenegro is hardly a formidable military force — the tiny country’s four military jets are up for sale and its two operational warships hardly ever leave their home port.

With its 2,000-strong army, the scenic country — squeezed between towering mountains and the Adriatic Sea — would hardly boost the West’s defense in any confrontation with Russia.

But despite its size and lack of military power, Montenegro has found itself in the middle of a major row between the West and Moscow over influence in the Balkans. The outcome of that clash could determine which way the whole western Balkan region is heading: toward the European Union, NATO and integration with the West, or back to Russia’s embrace.

“It is clear that the East-West tensions have left consequences on the political and security situation in the western Balkans,” former Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic said in a recent interview with The Associated Press.

He said that in the face of the “destructive” Russian influence in Montenegro, the West should “in the shortest period of time take a more determined course in defense of the European system of values.”

Djukanovic’s pro-Western stance made him the target of an alleged election-day coup attempt in Montenegro in October when the Kremlin’s secret service operatives reportedly planned to kill him, topple his government and replace it with a puppet regime. All that because of Montenegro’s NATO bid which Djukanovic had led until he stepped down after the election.

Montenegro had been a faithful ally of Russia. But after splitting with Serbia in a 2006 referendum, the nation of 620,000 people took a strong turn toward Euro-Atlantic integration.

Russia strongly opposes the expansion of the Western military alliance in a region it considers part of its strategic “sphere of interest.” Wary of Russian influence in the still-volatile region, NATO wants Montenegro in the alliance.

Montenegro’s membership has been ratified by 25 of the alliance’s 28 member states. U.S. senators still haven’t approved it amid fears in Montenegro and the region that President Donald Trump’s new administration is too lenient toward Russian President Vladimir Putin and will do nothing to halt his expanding influence.
Last week, Republican Sen. John McCain slammed his party colleague, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, accusing him of “working for Vladimir Putin” after Paul blocked the passage of a treaty that would allow Montenegro to move forward with joining NATO.

The Kremlin has denied involvement in the alleged coup plot, but has openly campaigned against NATO not only in Montenegro but also in its neighbors, Serbia, Bosnia and Macedonia, and has supported pro-Moscow nationalist officials and groups in all those countries.

Andrija Mandic, a leader of Montenegro’s opposition Democratic Front coalition, said Montenegro should never be part of NATO and should instead maintain close ties with its Slavic Orthodox “brothers” in Russia.

“We belong to a civilized circle that inherited the best traditions of Montenegro, which for 300 years had best relations, once with imperial Russia and later with the Soviet Union,” Mandic told the AP.

Analysts say that behind all the tensions lurk major strategic goals.

For Russia, it is to have access to the deep-sea ports for its warships deployed in the Mediterranean and to maintain its economic and political interests; for NATO, it is to keep the mighty Russian navy away from the so-called “warm seas.” Montenegro is the only Adriatic state that is not yet a NATO member.

“Russia believes that the western Balkans partly is in its own sphere of influence,” said Gennady Sysoev, the Balkan correspondent of the Russian daily newspaper Kommersant. “It is based on the fact that here, pro-Russian sentiments are quite strong.”

“Amid its confrontation with the West, Russia feels that whoever is not with Russia is against Russia,” he said.

Throughout history, Russia has viewed Montenegro as its patron and close ally.

In recent years, Russia’s rich and famous have been buying property along Montenegro’s stunning coastline and opening businesses.

There’s an entirely Russian-populated village on top of a mountain overlooking the spectacular Saint Stefan peninsula hotel resort, and Russian-language schools have sprung up for the growing Russian population. Russian billboards selling property line the winding road along the shoreline.
While two Montenegro light frigate ships are idle in the southern port of Bar on a sunny day, surrounded by rusty decommissioned patrol boats pulled ashore, only a few dozen kilometers (miles) up the coast is the Porto Montenegro marina where luxurious yachts and apartments — many owned by Russian oligarchs — are being prepared for the upcoming summer season.

Montenegro remains deeply divided among those who favor and oppose NATO and other integrations with the West.

As a Serbian ally, Montenegro was bombed in 1999 by NATO, which launched airstrikes to stop a crackdown against Kosovo Albanian separatists. That made NATO highly unpopular in the predominantly Christian Orthodox countries.

“I am against NATO because I cannot forget the NATO bombs they tossed on us, here and in our brotherly Serbia,” said Stanko Lazarevic, a fisherman in the sleepy village of Bigova, as he prepared his nets.

Retiree Milorad Novakovic, however, thinks “the primary interest of Montenegro is to join NATO.”

“It is now up to the politicians to balance the relationship between Montenegro and Russia and try to keep some level of good relations with Moscow,” he said in the Montenegrin capital, Podgorica.

“I don’t see how Montenegro could jeopardize Russia by joining NATO,” he said.